Arsenal are strong favourites to maintain their perfect Premier League start when they travel to Sunderland on Saturday night.
Mikel Arteta’s side have won all three league games this season and arrive at the Stadium of Light after Wednesday’s 1-0 Champions League victory over Napoli.
Sunderland have already shown they can make life difficult for stronger opponents, but the data points firmly towards another Arsenal victory.
The Opta supercomputer gives the Gunners a 65.1% chance of winning Saturday’s game.
Opta backs Arsenal to beat Sunderland
Opta simulated Sunderland vs Arsenal 25,000 times.
Arsenal won 65.1% of those simulations.
Sunderland were given only a 13% chance of victory, while the probability of a draw stands at 21.8%.
The model therefore makes Arsenal the most likely away winner across the Premier League weekend.
That reflects an excellent start to the season.
Arsenal have beaten Coventry City, Aston Villa and Chelsea to collect nine points from nine.
They can move onto 12 points with another victory and put immediate pressure on Manchester City in the early title race.
ReadArsenal’s regularly updated Arsenal Premier League table explains the current situation at the top.
Sunderland record gives Arsenal another advantage
History also favours Arteta’s side.
According to Opta, Sunderland have won only one of their last 29 Premier League meetings with Arsenal.
The Gunners have also lost just one of their last 14 league visits to Sunderland, winning eight and drawing five.
There is reason for Arsenal to remain cautious.
Last season’s meeting at the Stadium of Light ended 2-2, with Sunderland demonstrating how uncomfortable they can make the fixture.
Régis Le Bris’ side have also won their last two Premier League home matches against London opposition.
Sunderland will therefore be far more dangerous than the raw probabilities might suggest.
Arsenal team news could influence Arteta
Arsenal still have defensive fitness issues to manage.
William Saliba remains unavailable, while Jurriën Timber is doubtful and Cristhian Mosquera is pushing to recover from his muscular problem.
Ben White is fit.
The full situation is covered in ReadArsenal’s Arsenal injury news vs Sunderland.
Arteta also faces decisions further forward.
Kai Havertz is pushing to regain his position at centre-forward after Viktor Gyökeres managed only nine touches and no shots against Napoli.
ReadArsenal has predicted the full Arsenal XI against Sunderland ahead of the game.
The Guardian’s latest team-news guide also lists Timber as doubtful, with Saliba and Mosquera among Arsenal’s injury concerns.
Sunderland vs Arsenal prediction
Sunderland should make this more difficult than the Opta probability initially suggests.
The Stadium of Light will provide a hostile atmosphere, while Arsenal are returning from a midweek trip to Italy.
However, Arteta’s side have already shown their ability to control tight games.
They have conceded only once across their opening three Premier League fixtures and found a way to beat both Aston Villa and Chelsea.
Sunderland’s missing players also weaken Le Bris’ options, with Habib Diarra and Romaine Mundle ruled out.
Arsenal should have enough quality to eventually break through.
ReadArsenal prediction: Sunderland 0-2 Arsenal.
A win would give Arsenal four victories from their opening four top-flight matches for only the sixth time in the club’s history, according to Opta.
Supporters can find the full Sunderland vs Arsenal TV channel, live stream and 8pm kick-off details ahead of Saturday night’s game.
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